-- Black swans can happen anytime, anywhere.
2 -- Initial responses are inevitably confused. But
trial-and-error learning happens and we do get better. The U.S. was horribly
unprepared going into WWI and WWII but, once on track, American productivity
stunned enemies as well as friends.
3 -- Policy makers are inevitably pressed to do something. They often flail and go
off in wrong directions. Some of the errors have tragic consequences. Others
just feed political cronies.
4 -- Scientists as well as investors are quickly mobilized
and they do perform. There will be new and better treatments. Doomsday
forecasts are almost inevitable but usually too pessimistic.
5 -- Philanthropy and generosity (by the wealthy and
by the less wealthy) is widespread and a great blessing.
6 -- Prescriptions for more high-density living and greater
use of public transit are once again seen as misbegotten. Romantics and many planners are seen (once again) as not informed by the wiser choices of real
people.
7 -- Crises speed up change. All of us chose a blend of communications channels. The
shift from eye-to-eye in-person contact to electronic has been going on for
some time. It is always a matter of discovering whether there is a better blend
for any of us. Technology changes and people change. Both evolve more or less
in concert.
8 -- Just as exuberant post-WWII spending finally
ended the Great Depression (not the New Deal, not war expenditures) there will
be exuberant spending and shopping once the lock-down orders are lifted. This
will help to blunt some of the economic doomsday forecasts.
9 -- Fewer people are interested in Bernie
Sanders-Elizabeth Warren “democratic socialism”. Otherwise, all political bets are off. No one
can know what silly things any political candidate can say or do at any time.
1 -- In times of crises, there is base behavior and also
glorious and gracious behavior. My belief is that there is more of the latter.
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